The Search for the Origins of COVID-19: Increasing Pressure for Answers
The deteriorating relationship between the United States and China has intensified discussions surrounding the origins of the coronavirus. The “lab leak” theory has gained prominence, leading to increased tension between the two countries.
It is widely agreed upon that the pandemic originated in Wuhan, China, potentially as early as September 2019. However, there is uncertainty as to whether the virus originated from a wildlife market or if it was accidentally released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Despite the pandemic having lasted over three years, crucial questions about its origin remain unanswered. The debates over masks and vaccines have been overshadowed by the contentious debate surrounding how the virus first infected humans.
Comedian Jon Stewart’s appearance on Stephen Colbert’s late night talk show in 2021 sparked a viral discussion about the lab leak theory. Stewart expressed skepticism that the coronavirus could have originated coincidentally in a city that also housed a lab dedicated to studying coronaviruses. Despite the immediate backlash, more and more experts have since voiced similar views.
Although intelligence agencies remain divided on the issue, the Department of Energy’s Z Division recently informed the Biden administration that it was growing increasingly confident that the virus emerged from a laboratory. Initially, some experts refrained from endorsing the lab leak hypothesis for fear of fueling conspiracy theories and anti-Asian sentiment.
However, with no concrete evidence of animal-to-human transmission, and mounting circumstantial evidence of a lab leak, more scientists are speaking up. Alex Washburne, a mathematical epidemiologist and pathogen spillover researcher, notes that more scientists are publicly acknowledging the validity of the lab-origin theory.
No longer are proponents of the lab leak theory lumped together with anti-vaccine conspiracy theorists. According to Washburne, the “spell is broken.” Legislators on Capitol Hill are seeking classified intelligence on the matter, but it remains unclear whether the Biden administration will comply.
“The cookie jar was tampered with,” declared Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) during the House Oversight Committee’s hearing on Wednesday, insinuating that Dr. Fauci and Dr. Collins were responsible for the gain-of-function research conducted in Wuhan. Despite the lack of evidence suggesting Fauci or Collins had direct involvement in the research, the recent release of email exchanges showed that they initially dismissed the lab leak hypothesis without considering evidence for the zoonotic model.
Researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology conducted gain-of-function studies to predict the behavior of SARS-CoV-2 in a human population. During the hearing, experts testified that the furin cleavage site, a unique signature consisting of a sequence of four amino acids, could provide persuasive yet circumstantial evidence of human meddling in the virus’s creation. While some researchers believe the furin cleavage sites are not genetically engineered, others argue that the evidence supports the accidental release of the virus due to lab research.
After Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives in the 2020 midterm elections, their new leaders vowed to investigate public health officials, including Dr. Fauci and Dr. Collins. Fauci, in particular, has been a target of conspiracy theories and legitimate inquiries regarding federal oversight of subgrants to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. As the former head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a top pandemic advisor to Presidents Biden and Trump, Fauci has faced threats against him and his family due to his involvement in the pandemic response.
Initially, many scientists and public health experts were concerned that promoting the lab leak hypothesis would fuel conspiracy theories and anti-Asian sentiment. However, as circumstantial evidence supporting the hypothesis mounts and conclusive proof of an animal-to-human jump fails to materialize, more scientists have spoken out in support of the theory. According to Alex Washburne, an independent mathematical epidemiologist and pathogen spillover researcher who has worked at Duke and Princeton universities, “We’re getting more popular awareness of the validity of the lab-origin theory, and this is leading more scientists to speak up and come out of the woodwork.”
The lab leak hypothesis gains traction Although Dr. Fauci has not testified before the GOP’s coronavirus panel, he has previously advocated for collaborating with Chinese researchers on gain-of-function experiments. He has a wealth of experience testifying before Congress and has expressed willingness to defend his record.
The most noteworthy witness at Wednesday’s hearing was Dr. Robert Redfield, former Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Redfield, who was sidelined by then-President Donald Trump and was never fully trusted by Democrats, was an early proponent of the lab leak narrative. In his testimony, he seemed to revel in his vindication, while also expressing his animosity towards Fauci.
“Based on my initial analysis of the data, I came to believe and I still believe today that it indicates that COVID-19 more likely was the result of an accidental lab leak than a result of a natural spillover event,” Redfield asserted.
Another witness, Jamie Metzl, emphasized his pro-science Democratic credentials, having served on the National Security Council during the Clinton administration. Although he acknowledged that there is no definitive evidence proving the lab leak hypothesis, he argued that there is a growing body of circumstantial evidence that strongly suggests its plausibility.
“There is no ‘smoking gun’ proving a lab origin hypothesis, but the growing body of circumstantial evidence suggests a gun that, at the very least, is warm to the touch,” Metzl testified.
China under scrutiny for lack of cooperation on lab leak investigation
With mounting evidence pointing to a possible lab leak as the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, China is under increasing pressure to allow outside investigators to conduct a thorough probe into the matter. However, the Chinese government has been resistant to the idea, barring Western investigators from accessing the Wuhan virology lab, with the exception of a single visit from the World Health Organization.
Despite China’s efforts to stonewall investigations, there has been a growing body of circumstantial evidence suggesting that the virus may have originated in a lab rather than through zoonotic transmission. Researchers in China have failed to identify any convincing animal candidate for the zoonotic hypothesis, further fueling suspicions of a lab leak.
At a recent Senate hearing, Avril Haines, the US Director of National Intelligence, criticized China for its lack of cooperation, calling it a “key critical gap” in understanding the origins of the pandemic. Even officials from the World Health Organization have expressed frustration with China’s reluctance to share information and have called for greater transparency.
While it remains to be seen whether China will cooperate fully with investigators, understanding the origins of the pandemic is critical. As WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove emphasized at a recent briefing, this is not a game, and more transparency is needed to get to the bottom of this global crisis.
Democrats React
While the inquiry into the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot has become a divisive, partisan issue, the investigation into the pandemic’s origins has so far been a collaborative endeavor between the two major parties. However, Republicans have been more focused on determining the virus’s origin, while Democrats have been more concerned with preventing future pandemics.
Moreover, Democrats have accused Republicans of attempting to absolve former President Trump of responsibility for the pandemic’s devastating consequences, including the needless loss of hundreds of thousands of lives due to his mismanagement of the crisis.
Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., emphasized that no matter the origins of COVID-19, whether it came from bats or bureaucrats, no finding can excuse or redeem Trump’s lethal recklessness in his handling of the pandemic.