The Origins of COVID-19: What We Know So Far and the Latest Developments

The Origins of COVID-19: What We Know So Far and the Latest Developments.

Since the first cases of a mysterious new respiratory illness were recorded in China in late 2019, scientists have been working tirelessly to unravel the mystery behind the pathogen named SARS-CoV-2 and its Greek-letter variants. Thanks to their incredible efforts, treatments and vaccines have been developed at lightning speed, effectively reducing the pandemic to a background concern in many parts of the world.

Yet, even with all this progress, the question on everyone’s mind remains unanswered: where did the virus come from? Initially, investigators believed that China’s exotic animal trade was the culprit. Specifically, a wildlife market in Wuhan was identified as the potential site of the original transmission, and the pangolin was suspected as the unwitting vehicle of zoonosis.

However, some investigators have persisted in suggesting that the virus escaped from a laboratory such as the Wuhan Institute of Virology, possibly due to an accident. While initially dismissed as conspiratorial, this argument has gained significant traction in recent years, particularly as genetic data has emerged that points to evidence of human engineering.

Despite this, the scientific community largely still supports the zoonotic hypothesis – that the virus jumped from animals to humans at the wildlife market or some other point of contact between species. Nevertheless, evidence for the lab leak narrative continues to mount.

Recently, the Wall Street Journal revealed that the federal Department of Energy, whose ranks include highly trained biologists, has revised its estimate to reflect growing confidence that the virus emerged from a Chinese laboratory. However, other agencies disagree with this assessment, indicating how contentious the question of how the pandemic began remains.

During a White House briefing, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby emphasized that the Biden administration is determined to uncover the truth about how the pandemic began. This news only adds to the growing frustration with Beijing, which has done little to facilitate legitimate inquiry into the pandemic’s origins.

Diplomat and Asia expert Jamie Metzl lamented on Twitter, “China’s government may accuse others of politicizing #COVID19, but by destroying samples, hiding evidence, gagging Chinese scientists, and undermining international efforts, Beijing has made a full origins investigation impossible and put the world at risk.”

Department of Energy Reversal: What Prompted the Change in Decision?

The Department of Energy’s recent revision of its estimate on the origin of COVID-19 has raised questions about what led to the change. The agency investigators now report having “low confidence” in the theory of a lab leak origin. A low-confidence assessment means the evidence is highly incomplete. However, this shift in assessment may indicate that the evidence is beginning to shift in favor of a lab leak theory.

According to an intelligence official who spoke with the Wall Street Journal, the revisions were based on new intelligence, further academic literature studies, and consultation with experts outside the government. Meanwhile, four other agencies believe the coronavirus originated from a wildlife market but have expressed “low confidence” due to the lack of evidence to make a more definitive declaration. These agencies reviewed the new evidence from the Department of Energy but chose to maintain their original assessment.

As a result, there is still disagreement within the government on the origin of the virus. During a briefing on Monday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby confirmed that there is no consensus on how COVID-19 started.

Other Developments

In the past month, the inspector general of the federal Health and Human Services Department criticized the National Institutes of Health for their inadequate oversight of sub grants to the Wuhan Institute of Virology made through the American intermediary, the Eco Health Alliance, over several years.

Those supporting the lab leak theory believe that understanding the role of Eco Health Alliance is essential in uncovering the mystery of the pandemic’s origins. The New York-based nonprofit claims to have funded mainstream research to aid global health efforts. However, the inspector general’s report showed that there was little monitoring of the Chinese researchers’ work with U.S. funds.

What China Has to Say

China’s Foreign Ministry has strongly denied the report by the Journal. During a press briefing on Monday, spokeswoman Mao Ning stated that “The origins-tracing of SARS-CoV-2 is about science and should not be politicized. China has always supported and participated in global science-based origins-tracing.” She referred to a report by the World Health Organization (WHO) that supported the zoonotic theory.

Mao also called on certain parties to stop politicizing the origins-tracing and to cease repeating the “lab leak” theory. She urged them to refrain from smearing China.

Are lab leaks still on the table according to the WHO?

In fact, the possibility of a laboratory leak as the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is still being considered. In early 2021, a group of researchers visited Wuhan to conduct field work regarding coronavirus origins. The resulting report from the World Health Organization (WHO) concluded that the virus most likely originated in a wildlife market and deemed the possibility of a lab leak as “extremely unlikely.”

Critics of the WHO report argue that China was not pressed hard enough during the investigation, and that the team was comprised of China-friendly investigators, including Peter Daszak, the president of the EcoHealth Alliance. Even the head of the WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, eventually cautioned against ruling out the possibility of a laboratory accident, which seemed to contradict the report his own agency had produced.

Recently, WHO disputed reports that it was unable to further investigate the pandemic’s origins due to Beijing’s lack of cooperation. Despite these efforts, investigators have struggled to obtain clarity on the pandemic’s origins, with Beijing’s reluctance to cooperate continuing to hamper attempts at a thorough investigation.

Washington’s Stance

Washington’s stance towards China has been one of competition rather than conflict, with President Biden pledging to uphold this nuanced approach. However, the ongoing questions surrounding the origins of the coronavirus have posed a significant challenge for the President and his administration, as it remains a difficult issue to resolve for any Western leader.

In May 2021, President Biden asked the intelligence community to assess the origins of the virus, signaling that his administration was open to exploring what was previously considered conspiratorial speculation during the Trump presidency. This move led to the Department of Energy revising its policies, as outlined in the 2021 directive.

Despite this, President Biden has been cautious not to confront Chinese leader Xi Jinping directly on the matter, given China’s potential involvement in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the possibility of a future invasion of Taiwan. This has made it challenging for the President to decide where to press Xi and how forcefully to do so.

Tensions between Washington and Beijing have also been heightened by the recent controversy over a Chinese surveillance balloon that was shot down by the U.S. military after flying over the United States.

While the Republican-led House of Representatives is expected to conduct an aggressive investigation into the lab leak hypothesis, efforts have been impeded by far-right figures, such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who have espoused baseless conspiracy theories, including unfounded accusations that the coronavirus was a “bioweapon” manufactured with the involvement of American officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci.

Nonetheless, mainstream Republicans are holding China accountable without embracing demonstrable falsehoods or conspiracies. As Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) stated, “Evidence has been piling up for over a year in favor of the lab leak hypothesis. I am glad some of our agencies are starting to listen to common sense and change their assessment.”